A Division of Windham Capital Management, LLC

Exponential Risk

Exponential risk is calculated using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA). Exponential risk has two main benefits over the equally weighted risk model (Historical Risk)

Advantages Over Historical Risk (Equally Weighted)

  1. Recent time series observations carry a higher weight (importance) relative to observations in the past. This allows exponentially weighted risk estimates (covariance) to react faster to recent shocks in markets.
  2. Risk estimates in this model have a shorter memory following a shock. The risk estimates decline smoothly and rapidly as the significance of shock observations decreases through time. In contrast, shocks observed by the equally weighted historical risk model will increase risk estimates for the full observation period and will cause an abrupt shift when they fall out of the observation window.

Decay Factor
The decay-factor is a parameter that controls how quickly the significance of older observations is reduced. The n-th observation is weighted by Decay Factor ^ n. The decay factor ranges from 0 to 1, where 1 will result in the same weighting scheme as the equally weighted model (historical risk).

The half-life describes the time it takes for the weight on time series observations to fall to one-half of the weight assigned to the most recent observation. Half-life is a function of the decay-factor and can be solved by

Half-Life Log(1/2) / Log(Decay Factor

For example, to calculate the half of monthly returns with a decay-factor of 0.97, we calculate the log of 1/2 divided by the log of 0.97.  The half-life is 22.76 months.

Category:Understanding the Software -> Risk Estimation